Category:GIWS-PF

In October 2009, SPE held a Forum in Cadiz, Spain, on “Getting to Robust Production Forecasts.” The discussions covered all aspects of production forecasting, from short-term forecasts for operational decisions, through medium- and long-term field forecasts to portfolio management and planning at a national level. However no clear consensus emerged on what makes a “good” production forecast.

Following the Forum, an SPE task force comprised of a small group of the attendees was created to take this work forward. The Task Force developed an SPE Reprint Series book that brought together papers on Production Forecasting, followed by a series of SPE workshops for discussion of issues and challenges in production forecasting. The Reprint Series book was published in 2011, and the first workshop was held in Berlin in early 2012. Additional workshops were held in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil (2013), Calgary, Canada (2013), Dubai, UAE (2014) and Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia (2015). The intention of the SPE workshops was to help improve understanding of production forecasting, to determine whether there were different expectations around the globe, and eventually to document production forecasting practices from across the industry.

The pages below form the completed document, which was written in 2014 and 2015 by a group of almost 50 experts and committee members who volunteered their expertise to integrate the learnings from the wealth of contributions and discussions during the workshops. It represents the consensus views of the authors in respect of current practice, and includes examples of where some current approaches are inadequate and improvements are still needed.

You may be reading this because you have a particular interest in a particular page, but you are encouraged to read all the pages. The industry can do better in production forecasting simply by understanding the needs of and approaches used by others. The task force and contributors hope that this document will not only help to improve production forecasting, but also the communication and understanding among everyone involved in dealing with production forecasts in the oil and gas industry. Please make your contribution to this process by commenting on and adding to these Petrowiki pages.

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