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Production forecasting building blocks
Fig 1 shows the building blocks for a production forecast which are further discussed throughout this document.
INSERT Figure 1 Forecast building blocks (Pending permission approval)
Key reservoir characteristics are remaining hydrocarbon volumes, structure, architecture, phase contacts, rock and fluid properties, sand connectivity, heterogeneity, faulting, fracturing, drive mechanism, and aquifer pressure support to determine the future capability of the field to deliver production.
The inflow and tubing lift performance of the production conduits impact the surface flow rates from the wells and their expected decline. Key aspects to consider are well design, completion efficiency, lift curves, impairment, sand production, well integrity, coning/cusping potential, liquid loading, interference and availability of artificial lift, and in the case of injection, whether this is done above or below fracture propagation pressure.
Development strategy and development pace
Future production profiles and ultimate recovery from a field are affected by the envisaged development plan in terms of number, type (e.g., horizontal or smart wells), density and phasing of wells, reservoir management policy, project timing, displacement process, suitability of improved recovery techniques and injection volumes. An important assumption in any new or incremental project forecast is how fast these developments can be carried out, so first oil date and ramp-up assumptions are an important ingredient for any new project forecast.
Layout, sizing, design envelope, operations policy, life time and minimum surface pressures will constrain the throughput of the facility network (such as pipelines, separator trains, compressors). These constraints may change during the life of the field.
Production system availability
Production system availability is defined by scheduled and unscheduled maintenance and deferments, based on short- and medium-term planning and calibrated with historical availability statistics and predicted Opex levels.
Commercial and economic constraints
These include contractual obligations (off-take limits, load factors, depletion policies, hydrocarbon sales specifications), economic criteria (abandonment conditions) and environmental constraints (H2S, mercury, subsidence).
Noteworthy papers in OnePetro
Production forecasts and reserves estimates in unconventional resources. Society of Petroleum Engineers. http://www.spe.org/training/courses/FPE.php
Production Forecasts and Reserves Estimates in Unconventional Resources. Society of Petroleum Engineers. http://www.spe.org/training/courses/FPE1.php