Production forecasting building blocks

Building blocks

Fig 1 shows the building blocks for a production forecast which are further discussed throughout this document.

INSERT Figure 1 Forecast building blocks (Pending permission approval)

Hydrocarbon reservoir

Key reservoir characteristics are remaining hydrocarbon volumes, structure, architecture, phase contacts, rock and fluid properties, sand connectivity, heterogeneity, faulting, fracturing, drive mechanism, and aquifer pressure support to determine the future capability of the field to deliver production.

Well performance

The inflow and tubing lift performance of the production conduits impact the surface flow rates from the wells and their expected decline. Key aspects to consider are well design, completion efficiency, lift curves, impairment, sand production, well integrity, coning/cusping potential, liquid loading, interference and availability of artificial lift, and in the case of injection, whether this is done above or below fracture propagation pressure.

Development strategy and development pace

Future production profiles and ultimate recovery from a field are affected by the envisaged development plan in terms of number, type (e.g., horizontal or smart wells), density and phasing of wells, reservoir management policy, project timing, displacement process, suitability of improved recovery techniques and injection volumes. An important assumption in any new or incremental project forecast is how fast these developments can be carried out, so first oil date and ramp-up assumptions are an important ingredient for any new project forecast.

Surface facilities

Layout, sizing, design envelope, operations policy, life time and minimum surface pressures will constrain the throughput of the facility network (such as pipelines, separator trains, compressors). These constraints may change during the life of the field.

Production system availability

Production system availability is defined by scheduled and unscheduled maintenance and deferments, based on short- and medium-term planning and calibrated with historical availability statistics and predicted Opex levels.

Commercial and economic constraints

These include contractual obligations (off-take limits, load factors, depletion policies, hydrocarbon sales specifications), economic criteria (abandonment conditions) and environmental constraints (H₂S, mercury, subsidence).

Noteworthy books

Society of Petroleum Engineers (U.S.). 2011. Production forecasting. Richardson, Tex: Society of Petroleum Engineers. WorldCat or SPE Bookstore

External links

Production forecasts and reserves estimates in unconventional resources. Society of Petroleum Engineers. http://www.spe.org/training/courses/FPE.php

Production Forecasts and Reserves Estimates in Unconventional Resources. Society of Petroleum Engineers. http://www.spe.org/training/courses/FPE1.php

See also

Production forecasting glossary

Aggregation of forecasts

Challenging the current barriers to forecast improvement

Commercial and economic assumptions in production forecasting

Controllable verses non controllable forecast factors

Discounting and risking in production forecasting

Documentation and reporting in production forecasting

Empirical methods in production forecasting

Establishing input for production forecasting

Integrated asset modelling in production forecasting

Long term verses short term production forecast

Look backs and forecast verification

Material balance models in production forecasting

Probabilistic verses deterministic in production forecasting

Production forecasting activity scheduling

Production forecasting analog methods

Production forecasting building blocks

Production forecasting decline curve analysis

Production forecasting expectations

Production forecasting flowchart

Production forecasting frequently asked questions and examples

Production forecasting in the financial markets

Production forecasting principles and definition

Production forecasting purpose

Production forecasting system constraints

Quality assurance in forecast

Reservoir simulation models in production forecasting

Types of decline analysis in production forecasting

Uncertainty analysis in creating production forecast

Uncertainty range in production forecasting

Using multiple methodologies in production forecasting