Glossary:Uncertainty

-The amount of possible inaccuracy.

-In the context of risk, uncertainty is a reflection of the measured or perceived possible range of outcomes associated with an event or process. Uncertainty can be expressed as deterministic quantitative value, a qualitative value, or as a probability distribution that combines a range of quantitative coefficients with the likelihood that any value in the range will occur.

-The range of possible outcomes in an estimate. (SPE)

-“A situation where there is no scientific basis to form any calculable probability whatever.” – John Maynard Keynes Uncertainty is the error in estimating a parameter, such as the mean of a sample, or the difference in means between two experimental treatments, or the predicted response given a certain change in conditions. Uncertainty is measured with a variance or its square root, which is a standard deviation. Uncertainty refers to epistemic situations involving imperfect or unknown information. It applies to predictions of future events, to physical measurements that are already made, or to the unknown. Uncertainty arises in partially observable or stochastic environments, as well as due to ignorance, indolence, or both. It arises in any number of fields, including insurance, philosophy, physics, statistics, economics, finance, medicine, psychology, sociology, engineering, metrology, meteorology, ecology and information science.