Production forecasting decline curve analysis: Difference between revisions

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**Tubing limited wells.
**Tubing limited wells.


===Nominal and Effective decline===
=== Nominal and Effective decline ===


*There are two types of decline factors (often called the decline rate).
*The nominal decline factor d is defined as the negative slope of the curve representing the natural logarithm of the production rate q vs. time t or :
*[[File:Nominal and Effective decline.PNG|middle|Rate q vs. time t]]
*Nominal decline is a continuous function and it is the decline factor that is used in the various mathematical equations relating to decline curve analysis. For exponential decline it is a constant with time.
*The effective decline factor D is a stepwise function that is in better agreement with data recording practices. It is the drop in production rate from qi to q1 over a specific time period.
*It is defined as
*[[File:Factor D.PNG|middle|Factor D]]
*D is the effective decline rate = the decline rate over a time period.
**This is the decline often quoted in e.g. commercial software decline graphs. Such software may, at users discretion, report nominal decline.
**It is the proportion by which the production rate reduces over a given time period.
**D is a constant only for constant percentage or exponential decline.
**D decreases with time for hyperbolic and harmonic decline
**(1> b > 0)
*It is easy to convert from a nominal decline factor to an effective decline factor and vice versa.
*[[File:Nominal decline factor d to the effective decline factor.PNG|middle|Nominal decline factor (d) to the effective decline factor ]]
*Thus an ‘effective’ decline of 10 % per year is equivalent to a nominal decline of 10.54% per year and vice versa
INSERT Figure 6 Effective and Nominal Decline, Shape and Relationship


=== Hyperbolic Decline ===
=== Hyperbolic Decline ===
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